Wayfair: The Sleeping Giant This Holiday Season

“Wayfair is among the brands that has benefitted from soaring e-commerce activity as shoppers stayed away from malls and stores during the pandemic. The e-commerce retailer has gotten a boost from increased consumer spend on items for the home.”

Wayfair didn’t disclose its holiday sales performance, but Jefferies analysts reckon that Black Friday weekend was another strong showing for the online furnishings retailer. Namely Jonathan Matuszewski, who reiterated his Buy rating and slapped a $360 price target on the stock [$W] Friday. What’s more, he lifted revenue estimates through 2022, bolstered by his optimistic appraisal of the company’s performance during the “Cyber 5,” the five-day period ranging from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

He continued that retailers in general have been modifying their promo’s and looking to direct consumers toward spending more, earlier—a common theme but highlighted this year more than ever given potential shipping and supply-chain congestion.

Despite a steep decline in March amid the outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States, Wayfair’s stock has gained more than 140% since the beginning of 2020.

Matuszewski surmised that the Cyber 5 days accounted for 13% of Wayfair’s quarter-to-date traffic. That’s in the ballpark to 2019 levels, meaning the unorthodox, pandemic-fueled consumer shopping in October may not have ballooned spending, but rather could be on top of solid holiday numbers.

Wayfair’s website visits remain resilient in the U.S. and look even stronger on the international front, with “the U.K. showing outsize growth followed by Canada,” the analyst adds. Growth in Germany has also accelerated—which is likely tied to the country’s increasingly stringent lockdown. Mr. Matuszewski’s expanded confidence about Q4 fortifies his bullish stance, and in the best possible scenario, he says Wayfair could trade to $430.

Wayfair’s IPO date was October 2, 2014.

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